Cardano's native token ADA has jumped 20% over the past week, trading at roughly $0.138. The rally comes after a brutal June that saw ADA dip below $0.14 for the first time since 2020. Large holders — so-called whales — appear to be driving the move, snapping up more than 240 million ADA tokens in less than a week.
Whale activity fuels the rally
On-chain data shows that wallets with significant ADA balances accumulated heavily during the price dip. That buying spree likely provided the fuel for the recent uptick. But not everyone is jumping in. Santiment reports that the number of non-empty ADA wallets is actually declining, even as the price climbs. That suggests retail investors haven't fully returned to the market.
Analysts see a pattern repeat
Several crypto analysts have weighed in with bullish calls. JAVON MARKS set a price target of $2.90 for ADA, pointing to similarities between the current chart pattern and the one that preceded the 2020-2021 rally. Another analyst, Sseebi, noted that ADA is close to crossing its 20-week moving average after being oversold — a move that has historically triggered a 'big pump'. Meanwhile, analyst CW highlighted a major resistance level at $0.2305. Breaking above that, he said, could end the long downtrend.
Futures volume surges but retail stays cautious
Trader interest in ADA has clearly increased. According to analyst Martinez, futures volume skyrocketed from $150 million to $650 million in a single week — a 380% jump. That kind of activity often signals speculative interest from institutional or professional traders. Yet the shrinking number of non-empty wallets tells a different story. It suggests that smaller, retail holders are either sitting on the sidelines or cashing out. That disconnect between whale accumulation and retail apathy could shape how the rally plays out.
The key question now is whether ADA can break through the $0.2305 resistance level that CW flagged. If it does, the long-term downtrend might finally reverse. If not, the recent gains could fizzle. With whales holding a growing stash and futures traders piling in, the next few days will show whether this rally has legs — or whether it's just another head fake in a bear market.
