ChartNerd is warning that XRP's recent bounce might be a bull trap. The token is still in a long-term downtrend, even after recovering from recent lows. XRP traded at about $1.13 at the time of writing, up nearly 4% in 24 hours and 6% over the past week, but it's down roughly 2% from a month ago. A death cross between the 20-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) formed back in January 2026, signaling bearish control.
The death cross and bearish control
That death cross isn't just a technical footnote. In May, XRP's relief rally stalled right at the 20-week EMA, and the price fell from about $1.35 to near $1.00. That move confirmed the EMA as a resistance level, not support. ChartNerd sees the same pattern playing out now: the token is trying to push higher, but the long-term trend is still pointing down.
Key resistance levels to watch
ChartNerd identifies $1.29 (the 20-week EMA) and $1.60 as the two big resistance levels. If XRP can rally to $1.60 in late July or early August, that could signal a local bottom near $1.00. But if it fails to reach the 20-week EMA around $1.29 — or gets rejected there — a drop below $1 could come sooner than expected. The recent trading range has been tight, between $1.08 and $1.14, with no decisive breakout.
No breakout yet
ChartNerd refutes any claims of a breakout. XRP remains inside a wedge pattern and below descending resistance. The price action looks more like a pause before another leg down than a reversal. The analyst's warning is blunt: don't mistake a dead-cat bounce for a trend change.
Bullish counterpoint
Not everyone is bearish. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has argued that XRP could eventually hit a $1 trillion market cap if historical patterns repeat. But that would require much stronger market conditions and demand than what we're seeing now. For the moment, the technicals are the louder signal.
The next few days will tell the story. If XRP can't clear $1.29, the bears stay in charge. If it does, $1.60 becomes the next test. Either way, the wedge is narrowing — and a move is coming.
