XRP's next big move hinges on a price zone it hasn't been able to hold since August. In a YouTube video posted September 28, crypto analyst ChartNerd argued the token could climb to $1.80-$1.90 if it clears resistance on its weekly and monthly charts — and the line in the sand is the 50-week exponential moving average, sitting around $1.52.
XRP was trading near $1.47 when the analysis was published. It's spent six weeks failing to break that level.
The $1.50-$1.52 problem
Two separate technical barriers sit almost on top of each other here. The 50-week EMA is one. The monthly Gaussian Channel's upper regression band, around $1.50, is the other. ChartNerd's bullish case doesn't start until XRP closes above both.
If that happens — and holds — the analyst sees $1.80 and $1.90 as reachable. The argument is built on XRP's long history inside the Gaussian Channel, where past cycle bottoms have dipped beneath the middle regression band before larger recoveries followed. One example he points to: a bottom in June 2022 that preceded a 90% rise back to the same lower band.
That's the constructive version. The other one is less pleasant for holders.
The deeper retracement case
If XRP can't close above $1.50-$1.52, ChartNerd says the deeper retracement scenario stays on the table — a move that could set up a higher low later in the year rather than a breakout. The levels below matter here. The monthly midline sits around $0.94 to $0.95. XRP's 2015, 2017, 2020 and June 2022 lows all either tagged that area or dipped beneath it.
Further down, the three-month channel's upper regression band is near $0.80 and hasn't been tested yet. That's not a forecast — it's the map of where support has historically shown up if the current test fails.
Price action and flows are pulling in opposite directions
The spot market isn't giving bulls much to work with right now. XRP was down 3.5% over 24 hours, though it's up by almost the same percentage across the last seven days. Its 24-hour range ran roughly $1.47 to $1.54, and trading volume rose more than 20% to about $3.23 billion. The token is still nearly 60% below its $3.65 all-time high.
The ETF picture tells a different story. XRP exchange-traded funds logged $75.89 million in net inflows last week — an 11th straight week of positive flows. Cumulative inflows now sit at about $1.79 billion.
So the product wrapper keeps absorbing capital while the chart keeps failing at the same ceiling. That divergence is the whole setup.
What actually settles this
One weekly close. That's the trigger ChartNerd is watching — above $1.52 and the structure changes; below it and the higher-low scenario stays live. Until then, XRP is chopping in a range it's been stuck in for six weeks, with a monthly band and a moving average stacked almost exactly at the same price.
