Citigroup cut its price target on Coinbase from $400 to $235 on July 24 — a 41% reduction — but kept a buy rating. Analyst Peter Christiansen said Q2 likely marks a trough for trading volumes, with spot volumes near a two-year low. The stock has fallen about 29% this year.
Revenue estimates slip below $1.3 billion
Analysts expect Coinbase's Q2 revenue around $1.3 billion, down 13% year-over-year and below the previous quarter's $1.41 billion. Transaction revenue is forecast at $640 million. Barclays estimates Coinbase handled $152 billion in volume, under the Street's $178 billion view. Clear Street trimmed its target to $225; Rosenblatt held at $240.
Subscription income provides a floor
When trading slows, subscription and services income — including interest from USDC reserves — gives Coinbase a steadier base. That segment has grown as the company diversifies beyond transaction fees.
Traders eye the CLARITY Act
Despite the near-term headwinds, Coinbase stock has surged over 5% month-on-month. Traders are looking past the quarter toward the CLARITY Act, which could bring clear federal rules for crypto and attract institutional money. COIN has already climbed on signals the bill is near the finish line.
Options market shows mixed signals
The put-call ratio tells a split story. Open interest ratio eased to 0.74 from 0.86, slightly more bullish long-term. But the volume ratio climbed to 0.75 from 0.44, indicating short-term defensiveness. Chaikin Money Flow sits at 0.03 and has stayed above zero even as COIN drifted lower since June, suggesting institutional buying.
Coinbase reports Q2 earnings in the coming weeks. The CLARITY Act's progress in Congress will be a key catalyst for the stock.
