The Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act on May 14 with a 15-9 vote — including two Democrats crossing the aisle — but the bill now faces a steep climb. Polymarket bettors give it just a 47% chance of passing this year, down from 74% a month ago. The math is brutal: 60 Senate votes are needed, and the legislative calendar is shrinking fast.
The vote and the math
The 15-9 committee tally was a win, but it's not close to enough. With the August recess approaching and a packed floor schedule, the bill's supporters need to lock down at least 60 votes. Right now they don't have them. The Polymarket slide — 27 points in a month — reflects the market's read on that reality. A lot can change in a few weeks, but the direction isn't great.
Galaxy Research cuts its forecast
Galaxy Research trimmed its own 2026 passage estimate to 60% from 75% on June 5. The firm cited a tightening Senate calendar as the main reason. That's a notable downgrade from a shop that's usually bullish on legislative outcomes. When the data guys start walking back their numbers, you pay attention.
Where Democrats are stuck
The hold-up is ethics and illicit-finance provisions. The White House has scheduled a meeting with law enforcement groups this Wednesday to try to resolve those sticking points. Several Democrats, including Maryland Senator Angela Alsobrooks, are withholding support until law enforcement concerns are addressed. That's a hard block — without those votes, the bill can't reach 60.
Industry pushes back
Over 200 crypto firms and advocacy groups, led by the Blockchain Association and Stand With Crypto, sent a letter to Senate leaders on June 7 urging them to schedule a floor vote. The message: time is running out. But the letter alone won't move the law enforcement lobby, and that's where the real action is this week.
The Wednesday White House meeting is the next concrete thing to watch. If the administration can broker a compromise between law enforcement and crypto advocates, the odds might tick back up. If not, the August recess could kill the bill's 2026 chances entirely.
