Galaxy Research puts the CLARITY Act's chance of becoming law this year at just 10%, with a possible Senate procedural vote expected in September. The firm points to unresolved ethics rules and sustained lobbying from the banking sector as the main reasons support has eroded.
Why Support Has Eroded
The bill's path has been complicated by lingering questions over ethics requirements that have yet to be settled. At the same time, banks have stepped up their opposition, pressing lawmakers to weaken or scuttle the measure. Those pressures have chipped away at what was once broader backing, according to the research firm.
Galaxy Research's estimate is not a prediction of outright failure, but it signals a steep uphill climb. The 10% figure reflects the combined weight of unresolved rule-making disputes and the financial firepower of banking interests, both of which have made it harder for the bill's supporters to lock in the votes they need.
What the September Vote Could Signal
A procedural vote in the Senate would be the first real test of whether the CLARITY Act can move forward. If it fails to clear that hurdle, the legislation is effectively dead for the year. If it passes, the bill would still face amendments and a final vote, but the procedural step will show whether there's enough momentum to keep going.
The exact date hasn't been set, but September is the expected window. Lawmakers and staff are already bracing for a close count, with several undecided members likely to make the difference. The outcome will hinge on whether the ethics concerns can be resolved in time and whether bank lobbying continues to sway votes.
For now, the bill's supporters are working to address the ethics rules that have become a sticking point. They're also trying to counter the banking industry's message, arguing that the CLARITY Act would bring needed clarity to a murky regulatory landscape. But with the odds stacked at 10%, the September vote will be a decisive moment.
If the procedural vote slips, the bill could be shelved until next year, giving opponents more time to build resistance. If it clears, the real fight begins on the floor. Either way, the next few weeks will determine whether the CLARITY Act has any realistic path to passage in 2025.
