The CLARITY Act enters the Senate's final scheduled week before the August recess with no floor vote yet on the calendar. Monday's schedule opens with H.R. 6500, a government funding vehicle, and the crypto bill isn't on it. Negotiators are still working through disputes over government ethics and stablecoin rewards. Prediction markets price the odds of the bill becoming law this year below even money.
The Senate calendar
Aug. 7 is the last scheduled weekday before the Senate's state work period, which runs Aug. 10 through Sept. 11. If the bill doesn't get a vote this week, the fight gets pushed into September. The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act — H.R. 3633 — back on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 vote. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its own version on May 14, 2026, by 15-9. Sen. Lummis released a merged Banking and Agriculture text on July 22.
The sticking points
Two main issues are holding things up. First, the ethics language: it bars certain senior officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets until 2029. Negotiators are still hashing out enforcement details and how existing arrangements are handled. Second, stablecoin rewards. Banks want to close what they see as a loophole that lets crypto firms offer rewards on stablecoin balances. Crypto companies argue a broad prohibition would protect banks from competition. The current compromise bars passive interest on stablecoin balances but allows rewards tied to transactions, staking, or platform activity.
Democrats have broader objections around consumer safeguards, illicit-finance rules, and decentralized platform exemptions. The central complaint: the exemption language for decentralized platforms leaves gaps that could let mixers and sanctions evasion slip through. The bill would place digital commodity exchanges under Bank Secrecy Act requirements, but Democrats say the draft doesn't go far enough.
The math in the Senate
Getting the bill through the Senate requires 60 votes to end debate. Republicans hold 53 seats, so they need at least seven Democrats. Two Republicans — Josh Hawley and Rand Paul — have already come out against the bill. Galaxy Research put 2026 passage odds at roughly 30% on July 25. The steps ahead: a motion to proceed, a cloture vote, final Senate passage, then House reconciliation, and finally the president's signature.
What happens next
If the bill doesn't get a floor vote by Aug. 7, the whole process resets in September. That's a long time for momentum to fade. The House already passed its version more than a year ago. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version three months ago. The merged text is out. Now it's down to the calendar and the negotiators. The next concrete deadline is this Friday.
