Senator Bill Hagerty said Thursday he hopes the CLARITY Act can pass the Senate before the July 4 recess — but acknowledged it might slip past Independence Day. With fewer than nine working days left on the calendar, the bill that would put Bitcoin and Ethereum under CFTC oversight faces a tight window and multiple unresolved sticking points.
The clock ticks
Hagerty made his comments on June 18, roughly two weeks before the Senate breaks for the holiday. The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act last July by a wide 294–134 margin, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 this year on a 15–9 vote. But floor time is scarce, and the legislative path remains anything but smooth.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Senate passage of the CLARITY Act by August 2026 at about 22%. The low probability reflects three known obstacles: the 60-vote cloture threshold needed to end a filibuster, differences between the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions of the text, and a dispute over ethics language.
The 60-vote problem
Under Senate rules, most major bills need 60 votes to advance. The Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act 15–9, but that margin — largely along party lines — is short of the supermajority required on the floor. Some Democrats have expressed reservations, and one key holdout is Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who has conditioned her support on explicit ethics language barring senior government officials from profiting off crypto holdings while in office.
David Nage, managing director at Arca, said lawmakers and industry participants are roughly 80–85% aligned on the bill's substance. He noted that yield provisions on stablecoins are no longer the primary friction point — meaning the remaining disputes are narrower but still unresolved.
The ethics standoff
Gillibrand's demand is straightforward: write into the bill a prohibition on senior officials using their positions to trade or hold crypto profitably. The provision has drawn pushback from some Republicans who view it as an unnecessary expansion of ethics rules. Whether Hagerty and Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott can craft language that satisfies Gillibrand without losing GOP votes is the open question.
Meanwhile, a coalition of gaming associations, tribal governments, and labor unions is pressing the Senate to include a separate provision banning prediction markets from offering sports and casino-style event contracts under the CLARITY Act framework. That adds another layer of negotiation for a bill already short on floor time.
What's at stake
The CLARITY Act would establish a CFTC-led regulatory regime for digital commodities, putting Bitcoin and Ethereum under the agency's oversight while giving the SEC a narrower role over certain broker-dealer and exchange activity. Standard Chartered estimated that passage could unlock $8 billion in XRP ETF inflows alone, based on the regulatory certainty the bill would provide.
For now, the next concrete step is the Senate-House reconciliation process — assuming the bill clears the floor. Hagerty's July 4 target looks ambitious. If it slips, the next window won't open until after the summer break, and the political calendar only gets more crowded from there.
