The probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law by 2026 has fallen to 36.5% on the prediction market Polymarket, following amendments to the bill. The drop reflects a shift in sentiment among traders who had previously assigned higher odds to the legislation's passage.
How the odds changed
The current 36.5% YES represents a decline from earlier levels, though the exact previous figure is not available from the data. Polymarket contracts allow users to buy shares in outcomes; a YES share currently trades at 36.5 cents, implying a 36.5% chance the bill becomes law by the end of 2026.
The role of amendments
The amendments that triggered the drop have not been detailed publicly. However, the market's response indicates that the changes were seen as making the bill less likely to become law. Without specifics on what was altered, traders are pricing in a lower probability of passage.
What Polymarket data shows
Polymarket, a platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, has become a popular gauge for political and regulatory probabilities. The Clarity Act contract is one of many legislative contracts on the site. The drop to 36.5% YES suggests a majority of traders now expect the bill to fail or be delayed beyond 2026.
The Clarity Act's path to law remains uncertain, and the Polymarket odds will update as new information emerges. Lawmakers have not announced the next formal step for the legislation.
