The CLARITY Act, a long-awaited crypto market-structure bill that would split jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC, is running out of runway. Prediction markets now put its chance of passage this year at about 31%, down from over 70% in May. Washington analysts say the real odds are even lower.
What the bill would do
The legislation gives the CFTC clearer authority over spot markets for commodities like bitcoin, while the SEC oversees tokens deemed securities. The House passed its version a year ago, 294-134, a bipartisan win. The Senate Banking Committee followed in May, with two Democrats joining all Republicans.
But the bill is stuck on the Senate calendar as №423. Getting it to a vote requires Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to schedule floor time — and then at least 60 senators to say yes.
Why it's stalled
Democrats want stronger restrictions on senior officials profiting from crypto ventures, pointing at Trump's meme coin. Banks are pushing for language that bars crypto platforms from offering interest-like rewards on stablecoins, fearing deposit outflows. White House meetings between bank lobbyists and crypto representatives failed to produce a deal, despite a reported compromise in May. Trump's latest meeting on the bill went nowhere.
On top of that, the Banking and Agriculture Committees still haven't sorted out their oversight roles. No one is steering the ship.
The clock is ticking
Supporters want the Senate to act before its August recess. Miss that window, and the November midterms could shift control of Congress, burying the bill entirely. The timing isn't great.
For now, the CLARITY Act isn't dead — but it's losing air fast.
