Prediction market odds on the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 have tumbled from nearly 75% to 50% in just one week. The drop comes as a long-simmering dispute over yield-bearing stablecoins continues to gum up the legislative gears. With barely a dozen usable weeks left on the congressional calendar before the 2026 midterms, the window for action is closing fast.
The shrinking window for passage
Polymarket's contract on passage before 2026 is now trading at 60%, up 16% over the past month — but that longer timeline masks the near-term trouble. The probability the bill clears before August stands at just 37%. Before July it's a mere 14%. Those numbers reflect a legislative reality: only nine to ten usable weeks remain after August recess and pre-election breaks in the Senate.
Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn pegged 2026 odds at roughly 50-50 in April, citing five separate procedural hurdles that could trip up the bill. TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg is even more bearish, putting the bill's chances at one-in-three for this Congress.
The stablecoin yield dispute that delayed the markup
The core friction is the yield-bearing stablecoin question. Banking industry lobbyists are pushing hard for a ban on stablecoins paying yield, arguing they would siphon deposits away from traditional banks. JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum publicly warned of the risks from allowing stablecoins like USDC to generate yield. That dispute delayed the Senate Banking Committee markup by roughly four months before it finally passed on May 14th with a 15-9 vote.
But the markup was just one step. The yield issue remains unresolved in the broader legislative picture, and neither side appears ready to blink.
Analyst odds and procedural hurdles
Even after the committee vote, the outlook remains cloudy. Thorn's five hurdles include floor time, amendment battles, conference committee wrangling, and potential veto threats. Seiberg's one-in-three estimate reflects a belief that the yield dispute alone could kill the bill if it isn't settled before a floor vote.
Polymarket odds briefly ticked up after Senator Cynthia Lummis pushed back on the pessimism, but the recovery was short-lived. The market still shows a 50% chance of passage before 2027, down from 75% a week earlier.
Lummis pushes back, but timeline tight
Lummis has publicly argued that the bill still has momentum and that the yield fight can be resolved. Her comments did nudge the Polymarket contract higher for a day, but the broader trend has been downward as traders digest the calendar constraints. The math is brutal: even if the yield dispute is settled in the next few weeks, getting the bill through both chambers before the summer recess means clearing the floor, reconciling differences, and avoiding a filibuster — all with a Senate that has only weeks of real work left.
The unresolved question is whether lawmakers can find a compromise on stablecoin yield before the clock runs out. Until they do, the odds are likely to keep sliding.
