The Clarity Act, a bill that would rewrite how the U.S. treats digital commodities, now has a 36.5% chance of becoming law by the end of 2026, according to prediction market data. The legislation aims to create a clear regulatory framework for assets like Ethereum and Solana, which have long sat in a gray area between securities and commodities. If signed, the act could fundamentally change how those platforms operate under U.S. law.
What the Clarity Act does
The bill's core goal is to define which digital assets count as commodities — and which don't. That distinction matters because commodities fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's oversight, not the SEC's. For years, Ethereum and Solana have been caught in a tug-of-war between the two agencies. The Clarity Act would settle that fight by statute, not by enforcement action.
Supporters say the bill would give developers and exchanges a clear rulebook. Critics worry it could leave some tokens without any regulator, or that it hands too much power to the CFTC. The text has been through several drafts, and the current version enjoys bipartisan sponsorship in both chambers.
A 36.5% chance of becoming law
That probability comes from a prediction market that tracks the bill's odds. A 36.5% "YES" price means the market sees roughly a one-in-three shot the president signs it before 2027. That's not a sure thing, but it's not negligible either. For context, similar bills at this stage in past sessions have had lower odds.
The timing matters. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the legislative window is narrowing. The bill would need to clear committee, pass both the House and Senate, and land on the president's desk — all before the end of the year. That's a tight calendar.
Ethereum and Solana in the crosshairs
The Clarity Act specifically targets platforms like Ethereum and Solana. Both have faced questions about whether their native tokens — ETH and SOL — are securities. The SEC has taken enforcement actions against other projects, but has been cautious on these two. A clear commodity designation would remove that sword of Damocles.
For Ethereum, which already has a futures market under CFTC oversight, the bill would formalize its status. For Solana, which has been more aggressive in its U.S. expansion, the clarity could attract more institutional money. But the bill also imposes new reporting requirements on "digital commodity platforms," which could mean additional compliance costs.
What happens next
The bill is currently in the House Agriculture Committee, which has jurisdiction over the CFTC. A markup session is expected in September. If it passes out of committee, it would head to the full House floor. The Senate version is still being drafted.
Whether the Clarity Act reaches the president's desk in 2026 remains an open question. But the debate over digital commodity classification is far from over — and the 36.5% number ensures the industry is paying attention.
