The CLARITY Act, the most ambitious attempt yet to set federal crypto rules, is almost certainly dead for the next month. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this week he hopes to start the bill on the floor but doesn't expect a final vote before the chamber breaks in August. With Republicans holding 53 seats and seven Democratic votes needed to reach the 60-vote threshold, not a single Democrat is currently willing to say yes.
Why the bill stalled
The bill would hand most crypto oversight to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead of the Securities and Exchange Commission — a structure the House passed in July 2025 with 78 Democrats in favor. That bipartisan support collapsed this year. Two former Democratic backers, including Senator Angela Alsobrooks, now oppose it. Alsobrooks called the plan 'wild and unserious and stone crazy.' Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has told Democrats to focus on Trump ahead of the November elections, raising the political cost of a yes vote.
More than 200 crypto groups — including the Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation and Digital Chamber — urged the Senate to vote. The National Fraternal Order of Police, representing 382,000 officers, endorsed the revised bill on July 24. It didn't move the needle.
Trump's $1.4 billion elephant in the room
President Trump made roughly $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, mostly from the $TRUMP meme coin and World Liberty Financial. Democrats say that creates an obvious conflict of interest. Republicans added ethics rules, but critics point to loopholes: only Trump's own Justice Department can enforce them; states are blocked from acting; coins created before the president took office — which covers $TRUMP — are exempt; and the rules expire in 2029.
Senator Cynthia Lummis released new text adding customer asset protections if an exchange fails, but the ethics concerns remain a dealbreaker for the seven Democrats needed.
What happens after the break
The Senate works one more week in August, then leaves until September 14. After that, budget and defense bills will dominate the calendar. Polymarket odds of passage in 2026 have fallen to roughly 37%, down from above 80% in the spring. Galaxy Research cut its odds to 30% from 75% in May.
Some insiders are looking past this session. Ron Hammond of Wintermute said the election politics that killed the bill now will dissipate after November. Until the CLARITY Act passes, crypto rules rest on executive orders — orders a future president could undo with a signature.
