The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has evidence that Bitcoin’s price history works as a marketing tool. In a controlled experiment, people shown Bitcoin’s past 12-month performance became more bullish on crypto and were roughly 2.5 percentage points more likely to own it in a later survey. That’s a meaningful jump when only about 11% of respondents held crypto before the test.
Inside the Fed experiment
Researchers split participants into groups. One saw Bitcoin’s exact return — 14.3% over the previous 12 months — while another saw a simple price chart. A control group saw neither. For comparison, some participants were shown S&P 500 returns or a GameStop chart.
The Bitcoin numbers moved expectations. Those told the exact return raised their expected crypto return for the next year by 3.2 percentage points relative to the control group. Those shown the price chart bumped it by about 1.2 percentage points. They also wanted to put about 2 percentage points more of their money into crypto, up from a control-group average of 4.3%.
The ownership bump
Bitcoin’s past performance pushed actual ownership too. People who got the return information were 2.41 percentage points more likely to report owning crypto; the chart group was 2.48 points more likely. Pooled, the effect was statistically significant at p=0.017.
That 2.5-point increase works out to roughly a 23% relative rise in the likelihood of owning crypto. The response was strongest among people with limited knowledge of crypto — the exact group that a price chart might convince.
S&P 500 information also raised later ownership, but a GameStop chart did not. So the effect isn’t unique to Bitcoin, but it’s not universal either.
Where the money comes from
The extra allocation didn’t come from stocks or bonds. Most of the shift came from money that would otherwise have sat in checking, savings, or cash. That means the experiment describes people reaching into idle funds to buy crypto, not rearranging an existing portfolio.
A widening adoption gap
The Fed study fits into a broader trend. Crypto ownership in the Nielsen Homescan Panel rose from about 3% in 2021 to roughly 11% in 2022, then about 12% by mid-2023. It declined, then recovered to around 12% as Bitcoin traded above $120,000 in 2025. Age is the biggest dividing line: people under 40 are 13 percentage points more likely to own crypto after controlling for other factors.
The experiment suggests a simple dynamic: past prices raise expectations, and expectations feed ownership. It’s not a forecast, but it does point to how rallies build their own next wave of buyers.
