Bitcoin traded at $64,159 at 6:45 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, but the market for CME bitcoin options tells a different story. Open interest has cratered from a peak near $290 million in late November to roughly $30 million–$40 million by mid June — a drop of about 90%. Yet in a striking contrast, options traders are now loading up on $120,000 strike calls through December 2026, betting on a rally that would more than double the current price.
What happened to open interest
The collapse is stark. Back in late November, CME's bitcoin options market was buzzing with nearly $300 million in open interest. By mid-June, that number had tumbled to the $30 million–$40 million range. That's a nine-tenths wipeout in about seven months. The exchange hasn't commented on the reason, but the timing suggests traders rotated out of CME options as other venues or strategies became more attractive — or simply lost appetite for hedging on regulated futures options.
The $120,000 bet
While the open interest chart looks like a ski slope, a different kind of action is brewing. Traders are accumulating $120,000 strike call options expiring in December 2026. That's a strike price roughly 87% above Saturday's $64,159 level. It's a lottery ticket — cheap upfront, but only profitable if Bitcoin nearly doubles in six months. No one is saying this is a consensus view, but the volume at that strike is real.
The divergence — shrinking overall open interest alongside concentrated long-dated call buying — suggests the market is splitting. Institutional hedgers may have pulled back after the post-election volatility faded, while speculators are making a directional bet on a late-2026 breakout. If the $120,000 calls get any traction, it could pull more liquidity into the December expiry. For now, the CME open interest numbers are a reminder that the options market, like the spot market, can thin out fast when the action moves elsewhere.
