A new analysis from CoinGecko reveals that Bitcoin sees a significant boost after US holidays — about four times the next-day gains compared to regular trading days. The data, which spans multiple years, suggests a recurring calendar effect that traders might want to watch.
The holiday effect
CoinGecko's team looked at Bitcoin's price moves following US federal holidays and compared them to non-holiday periods. The result: next-day returns are roughly 4x higher when a holiday falls on the prior day. That's not a fluke — the pattern holds across different holiday types.
Monday and New Year's Day stand out
Not every day is equal, though. Mondays consistently show stronger Bitcoin performance than other weekdays. And New Year's Day? That's the standout. The January 1 effect is particularly pronounced, possibly tied to fresh capital flows or sentiment shifts at the start of the year.
Trading around the calendar
None of this guarantees a repeat — past patterns aren't predictions. But for anyone who trades Bitcoin, knowing that a US holiday Monday tends to precede a stronger Tuesday is a concrete edge. No need for complex indicators, just a wall calendar and a bit of patience.
