The full financial toll of the Coldcard hack is still unknown. Investigators haven't settled on a definitive loss figure, and the estimates they're working with vary depending on whether they're looking at victim reports or on-chain analysis.
Why the numbers don't line up
Victim reports are the most direct measure, but they're incomplete. Not everyone who lost money has filed a report, and those who have may not have a full picture of their own losses. On-chain analysis offers a different view, tracing transactions across the blockchain to see where funds moved. But that method has its own limits. Some funds may be routed through mixing services or other tools that obscure the trail, and the value of stolen assets can swing with market prices.
Those two approaches produce different numbers, and reconciling them takes time. Until that work is done, there's no single figure that everyone agrees on.
The investigation so far
Investigators are currently collecting victim reports and cross-referencing them with blockchain data. The goal is to build a complete picture of what was taken and where it went. That process is slow, and each new report can shift the estimate.
The more reports that come in, the more the numbers could change. It's a moving target, and investigators are working through it methodically.
What's at stake for victims
For affected users, the lack of a definitive figure is more than an accounting problem. It affects how they report losses, whether they can claim insurance, and how they plan their next steps. Without a clear number, it's hard to know the full scope of the damage.
Investigators haven't given a timeline for when a final figure might be released. They're still waiting on more victim reports and further analysis of the blockchain.
The road to a final figure
The investigation is ongoing, and the next update could come whenever investigators feel they have enough data to make a reliable estimate. Until then, the exact cost of the Coldcard hack remains an open question.
