Compass Point analysts are sticking with their bearish stance on Coinbase Global, reiterating a $140 price target that implies the crypto exchange's stock could fall roughly 40% from current levels. The call, which the firm has held for months, is rooted in what analysts describe as intensifying competition in the derivatives market — a segment Coinbase has been trying to grow.
A bearish bet on a volatile stock
The $140 target is one of the lowest on Wall Street for Coinbase, whose shares have swung wildly alongside Bitcoin and regulatory news. Compass Point's team sees limited upside for the company's core spot trading business and argues that its push into derivatives won't offset pressure from rivals like Binance, Bybit, and others that already dominate the global derivatives space. The analysts didn't change their rating or price target, so the reiterated call signals they see no reason to become more optimistic.
Why derivatives matter
Derivatives — options and futures tied to crypto — make up the bulk of trading volume by notional value across exchanges. Coinbase has rolled out its own derivatives products for institutional clients, but Compass Point's view is that the market is already crowded and the margins are shrinking. Smaller players and offshore exchanges often offer higher leverage or lower fees, making it tough for Coinbase to grab meaningful share while sticking to its regulatory compliance line.
The reiterated target landed while Coinbase shares were trading near $230, a level that already reflects some of the risk. The analysts aren't predicting a crash, just a slow bleed if the derivatives strategy fails to gain traction. Coinbase hasn't publicly responded to the latest note. The company is set to report its next quarterly earnings in February, which will give a clearer picture of whether trading volumes and derivatives uptake are moving in the right direction.
For now, Compass Point is betting they won't.
