The Crypto Clarity Act, a bill that would establish a federal framework for digital assets, has stalled in the Senate. The holdup stems from ethics concerns involving former President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. The delay throws into question the timeline for what would be the first major U.S. crypto legislation.
The ethics issue
Senators have raised objections over Trump's involvement with the bill. The exact nature of the ethics concerns hasn't been disclosed, but they've been enough to halt progress. The bill had been moving through committee before the objections surfaced.
What the prediction market says
Despite the stall, one prediction market still gives the act a 48.5% probability of being signed into law in 2026. That's a market-based forecast, not a guarantee. It suggests traders haven't written off the bill entirely — but the odds are far from certain.
It's unclear when the Senate will take up the bill again. The ethics concerns would need to be addressed first, likely through additional disclosures or amendments. The House passed its version earlier this year, but the Senate's calendar is tight.
Whether the bill can overcome the ethics hurdle before the end of the year remains an open question.
