A coalition of more than 200 crypto companies and organizations sent a letter to Senate leaders on June 7, urging them to schedule a floor vote on the CLARITY Act. The push comes as prediction markets show the odds of the market-structure bill becoming law this year slipping from 62% to 51% in just five days.
The letter and the coalition
Signed by exchanges, venture firms, and advocacy groups, the letter asks Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to prioritize CLARITY now that it has cleared the Senate Banking Committee. That committee advanced the bill on May 14 by a 15-9 bipartisan vote. Senator Cynthia Lummis said June 7 that “the floor is next,” and Banking Chair Tim Scott endorsed the bill the following day, calling it a measure that “takes the side of everyday Americans.”
Opposition on the other side
Not everyone is on board. A separate coalition of consumer and advocacy groups sent a letter on June 4 opposing the Senate version. Their complaints: weak anti-money laundering requirements, insufficient ethics provisions, and a loophole around stablecoin yields. Those objections could complicate any reconciliation between the Senate Banking version, the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, and the bill the House already passed.
Why the odds are dropping
Polymarket’s probability that CLARITY is signed into law in 2026 fell from 62% on June 3 to 51% on June 8. Over the same window, Kalshi’s market for passage before August dropped from 39.7% to 22.1%, while the probability for passage before 2027 barely budged — from 52.1% to 51.5%.
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn reportedly cut his 2026 estimate from 75% to 60%, citing Senate calendar risk. JPMorgan has put its estimate below 50%.
Three concrete bottlenecks keep the bill’s path uncertain: whether Senate leadership can squeeze in floor time, whether the ethics and AML disputes can be resolved, and whether the calendar survives competition from other priorities. For now, the letter from 200+ companies is the strongest public signal that industry wants this done — but the clock is ticking.
