Bitcoin may be 26% undervalued relative to gold, according to the latest edition of CoinDesk's 'Crypto Long & Short' newsletter published this week. The analysis comes as traders continue to debate whether the largest cryptocurrency behaves more like a hedge or a high-beta tech stock.
The 26% gap
The newsletter's central claim — a 26% relative undervaluation — is drawn from a comparison of Bitcoin's market cap against gold's total above-ground stock, adjusted for liquidity and accessibility. The figure suggests that if Bitcoin were to trade in line with gold on a risk-adjusted basis, its current price would need to rise by roughly a quarter. The analysis does not specify a target price, but the framing is clear: Bitcoin looks cheap compared to the traditional store of value.
Flipping the risk-asset script
Dovile Silenskyte, who contributed to the newsletter, offers an alternative to the dominant 'bitcoin as a risk asset' narrative that has dominated much of 2026. Instead of treating Bitcoin as a proxy for tech stocks or a bet on Fed policy, Silenskyte argues that its monetary properties — capped supply, decentralized settlement, global accessibility — align more closely with gold than with equities. The piece pushes back against the reflexive correlation trades that lump Bitcoin into the same bucket as Nasdaq futures, especially during macro shocks.
What global exchanges show
Joshua de Vos, another contributor, brings a practical lens by analyzing order-book depth and trading patterns across major global exchanges. His take: liquidity is fragmenting, but the divergence in pricing between venues is narrowing compared to early 2025. That tightening spread, he suggests, points to a maturing market where arbitrage is less of a factor — and where a re-rating against gold becomes more plausible.
Neither Silenskyte nor de Vos claims the undervaluation will close overnight. The newsletter stops short of a price call, instead laying out the logic for why the gap exists and what would need to shift — sustained institutional inflows, a macro regime change, or a collapse in gold's premium — for Bitcoin to catch up. For now, it's a thesis waiting for a catalyst.
