Crypto trader Aralez is predicting a steep near-term selloff for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a recovery that could push Bitcoin past $140,000 within two years. In a forecast released this week, Aralez laid out a multi-quarter roadmap that hinges on a Federal Reserve leadership change and the first US interest rate cut later in 2026.
The Q2 correction
Aralez expects Bitcoin to fall below $58,000 in the second quarter — a drop of roughly 27% from where it's trading near $80,000. Ethereum could slide to around $1,600, a 32% decline from its current price. The S&P 500, sitting at an all-time high near 7,230, might reverse and fall below 6,800. In the worst case, Aralez sees the index reaching as low as 5,200.
Why Q3 matters
Jerome Powell is weeks away from stepping down as Fed chair, and Aralez expects a new leader to cut rates for the first time this cycle. That, combined with whale accumulation, should put a floor under Bitcoin in the third quarter. The trader calls Q3 the bottom-forming period for the current bearish phase.
The Q4 rebound and the $140,000 target
Once rates come down, Aralez predicts Bitcoin will start a fresh uptrend in Q4 2026, climbing above $90,000 by year-end. The rally continues into 2027, with Bitcoin breaking its all-time high and reaching above $140,000. That surge, Aralez says, will be fueled by mass AI integration into crypto, quantitative easing during a global crisis, and new narratives that bring millions of new participants.
The math for buyers
Buying Bitcoin at the predicted Q3 bottom — at or below $58,000 — could produce nearly a 3x return within twelve months if the $140,000 target hits. For now, the timing of the Fed's next move remains the big unknown. Powell's exit and the first rate cut are still months away, leaving traders to watch for signs of a pivot.
