Bitcoin's prolonged bear market could be approaching a turning point, according to a fresh analysis from CryptoQuant. The on-chain analytics firm points to metrics that historically align with cycle bottoms — even as demand from both individual and institutional investors keeps sliding. The timing of the call matters: it comes after months of price compression and a notable lack of buying pressure across the board.
What the data shows
CryptoQuant's models look at a basket of on-chain indicators, including realized cap, spent output profit ratio, and exchange inflows. The current readings, the firm argues, match patterns seen at previous market lows. That doesn't mean a rally is imminent — but it does suggest the selloff may have largely run its course. The analysis stops short of calling a specific price floor or a date for a reversal.
Demand keeps falling
While the bottom-call has grabbed attention, the demand side of the ledger tells a more cautious story. Both retail and institutional investors have pulled back sharply. The data shows declining accumulation trends among large wallets and a drop in new addresses. In other words, few people are buying Bitcoin right now. That kind of demand vacuum can keep prices range-bound or even push them lower before any recovery takes hold.
Why the contradiction matters
For traders, the tension between a potential cycle bottom and falling demand creates a murky setup. Bear markets often end with a whimper, not a bang — low volume, low interest, low conviction. CryptoQuant's analysis fits that pattern. But without a catalyst to reignite buying, the market could grind sideways for weeks or months. The next real test will come if Bitcoin tests recent lows again, and whether that draws in new demand or triggers another leg down.
No major exchange or institutional player has publicly backed CryptoQuant's read. The firm's track record on cycle calls is mixed, as is the case for any on-chain analytics shop. Still, the report adds a data-driven voice to the debate over whether the worst is over — or just taking a breather.
What to watch next
Keep an eye on exchange reserves and miner selling activity in the coming weeks. If supply continues to drain from exchanges, it would support the thesis that long-term holders are accumulating quietly. If mining flows turn bearish again, it could undercut the bottom call. CryptoQuant hasn't updated its analysis since the report went public, so the next data snapshot will be key.
