The dollar fell to a three-month low on Monday, its third straight daily drop, after traders stopped betting on another Federal Reserve rate hike. The weaker greenback did little for Bitcoin, which traded at $63,572, up just 0.7% on the day, while gold jumped to $4,407 an ounce and has gained 9.3% over the past month.
The Fed's next move
Odds of a September hike have collapsed to roughly 30% from about 75% in late July. The shift followed a July payroll report that showed a 23,000 drop in jobs, with May and June revised down by a combined 103,000. Unemployment rose to 4.1%. Retail sales fell 0.6% in July to $763.6 billion after a 0.2% gain in June. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%.
Bitcoin sits out the dollar's slide
Bitcoin's 24-hour volume was $12.6 billion, under 1% of its market value. Over the past month, gold gained 9.3% while Bitcoin lost 0.8%. The lack of movement suggests crypto traders aren't buying the usual "weak dollar = Bitcoin up" narrative, at least not yet.
What's on the calendar
The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting minutes are out Wednesday and may reveal how close the decision was. The vote was 9-3, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan wanting a quarter-point increase. Rates held at 3.50% to 3.75%. Global PMI surveys land Friday and could move the dollar again.
Options market sees short-term pain
One-month options contracts have turned against the dollar for the first time since late February, while longer-dated contracts still favor it. That points to near-term weakness, not a structural shift. The next FOMC meeting is September 15-16.
Wednesday's minutes will show whether the 9-3 vote was a near-miss for a hike, and Friday's PMI data will test whether the dollar's slide has more room to run.
