Polkadot's native token DOT broke below the critical $1.20 support level in Wednesday trading, opening the door for a potential 23% decline toward $0.95 within the next two weeks, according to technical analysts. The breakdown comes as selling pressure mounts, despite the fact that whales remain heavily long on the token.
Why the $1.20 support mattered
For weeks, traders watched the $1.20 mark as a line in the sand. It had held through multiple tests since late February, and several analysts considered it the last major floor before deeper losses. Once that level gave way, the next target became $0.95 — a price not seen since late 2022. The move lower accelerated in the past 48 hours, with volume picking up as stop-loss orders triggered.
Whale positioning tells a mixed story
Data from on-chain tracking shows that whales — addresses holding large amounts of DOT — are heavily long, at 74% of their positions. That might suggest confidence among big holders, but it also raises the risk of a liquidation cascade if the price keeps falling. A 23% slide from $1.20 to $0.95 would put many leveraged long positions underwater, potentially forcing sales that amplify the decline.
What the technicals show
Momentum indicators are flashing bearish. The relative strength index has dipped into oversold territory, but that alone hasn't been enough to stem the selling. Moving averages have crossed into a so-called death cross pattern on the daily chart, a signal that often precedes extended downtrends. The next few days will be crucial: if DOT fails to reclaim $1.20 quickly, the path to $0.95 becomes the base case for many chart watchers.
For now, the market is watching whether the token can stage a recovery back above the broken support level. A bounce from current levels would need heavy buying volume, which hasn't materialized so far. The question hanging over the trade is whether the 74% whale long positioning will act as a buffer or a bomb if the price keeps sliding. No catalyst for a reversal has emerged, and the next major on-chain event for Polkadot — the parachain lease auctions — is still weeks away.
