Ethereum finally broke out of the multi-week range it had been stuck in, reclaiming the $2.1K zone and climbing back above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The move puts ETH at around $2.49K, right at the edge of the $2.45K–$2.5K area that has been a stubborn ceiling. The real question now is whether buyers can hold above $2.5K and turn that level into support.
The breakout levels that matter
On the 4-hour chart, the move originated from sideways trading between $1.85K and $1.9K, with the $2.1K zone serving as the primary breakout support. That's now the first major support level on the daily chart, and a deeper pullback could bring ETH back toward the $1.9K region. The bigger structural support sits at $1.5K, though a move there would mean real trouble.
Momentum has cooled slightly—the 4-hour RSI has fallen back toward 70 after being extremely overbought—suggesting the market may consolidate before making its next push.
What the premium index says
One thing to watch is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures how much US-based spot buyers are paying relative to the rest of the market. It stayed mostly negative during the rally, a sign that US demand wasn't leading the charge. But it has recently recovered sharply toward the neutral line. If it turns decisively positive while ETH holds above $2.4K–$2.5K, that would confirm the breakout. If it slips again, the risk of a short-term correction goes up.
The immediate test at $2.5K
For now, everything hinges on that $2.5K level. A daily close above it could open the door to the next major resistance around $3.3K. A failure to reclaim it likely sends price back to $2.1K, and a deeper loss would shift focus to the $1.85K–$1.9K breakout base. The next few sessions should give a clearer read on whether this is a real move or just a long squeeze.
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