Ethereum is about to make history — and not the good kind. For the first time since its inception, ETH is on track to record three consecutive quarterly losses. Data from Coinglass shows Q4 2025 down 28.28%, Q1 2026 down 29.26%, and with about two weeks left in Q2, the quarter is down 18.4%. The slump has pushed ether near multi-year lows and market sentiment deep into fear territory.
Three in a row
No prior stretch comes close. Ethereum has never closed three consecutive quarters in the red. After back-to-back quarterly losses, ETH has always bounced — rebounding 24% in 2022, with similar recoveries in 2019 and 2020. This time is different, at least so far. The broader risk market got a brief lift this week after reports of a US-Iran peace agreement pushed total crypto market cap up 2% in 24 hours. Ethereum rode that wave, gaining 2.6% to trade above $1,700, but the move feels fragile against the backdrop of a historically weak quarter ahead.
What the charts say
Technical analyst Ardi points to some familiar signals. The weekly RSI has touched the blue lower acceptance cloud, aligning with previous cycle lows. But there's a catch: in prior cycles, the RSI spent multiple weeks below 30 — it hasn't done that yet. The ETH/BTC pair remains in a strong downtrend, hinting at more downside for ether relative to bitcoin in the near term. Ardi cautioned that the worst isn't over, noting that ETH bottomed six months after BTC in the last cycle. Timing the bottom, he said, is improbable.
Staking shows conviction
Not everyone is running for the exits. Over 39.5 million ETH is staked across more than 887,000 validators — a massive pool that reflects long-term conviction among holders. That locked supply limits the amount of ether available to sell, providing a floor that wasn't there in previous downturns. Still, staking alone can't reverse a macro-driven selloff if broader risk appetite sours further.
Q3 has historically been Ethereum's weakest quarter, averaging just 7.44% returns. If the current pattern holds, that's not exactly a springboard for recovery. An analyst noted that this is shaping up to be Ethereum's second-worst first half of a year, behind only 2022. The question now is whether the historical rebound pattern holds — or whether this time really is different. With two weeks left in Q2 and a fragile peace rally already fading, the clock is ticking for ETH to find a bottom before Q3 adds to the pain.
