Ethereum has shed more than a third of its value relative to Bitcoin over the past year, and the chart pattern that fueled that decline is still in play. The ETH/BTC trading pair is down roughly 35% since May 2025, according to market data. That slide mirrors the bearish structure seen in 2024–2025, and some traders now see room for another 40% leg lower before the pair finds a floor.
The 35% Slide
The move has been grinding and persistent — not a flash crash but a steady erosion. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin for months, and the ratio keeps making lower highs and lower lows. For anyone holding ETH in a Bitcoin-denominated portfolio, the pain has been real. The current downtrend is now nearly as steep as the one that ran from mid-2024 into early 2025, and the technical setup hasn't broken yet.
Same Pattern, Same Risk
The similarity to the 2024–2025 move isn't just cosmetic. The structure — a series of failed bounces, each one shallower than the last — is virtually identical. Back then, the pair eventually stabilized after a sharp final drop of around 40%. This time, the same kind of capitulation could be brewing. No catalyst is required; the market is simply repricing Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, and the trend is the trend until it isn't.
What the Numbers Say
If ETH/BTC were to fall another 40% from current levels, the ratio would trade in territory not seen since Ethereum's early days. Whether that's a buying opportunity or a warning sign depends entirely on conviction. The last time the pattern resolved, it marked a multi-year low for the pair. Bulls will hope history repeats in the other direction eventually. But for now, the pressure remains firmly to the downside.
