Ethereum has given back 6% over the past week even as it notched a fourth consecutive weekly close above its 50-week moving average, a streak that began with a bounce off multi-month support at $2,405. The drawdown comes as spot ETH ETFs posted more than $540 million in net outflows last week — their ninth straight red day, with September 28 the last session that saw inflows. CryptoQuant data shows exchange-held ETH climbing to a one-month high of roughly 14.9 million units.
ETF desks head for the exits
The ETF outflow streak is the clearest sign that the marginal buyer from earlier this year has stepped back. Pension funds, hedge funds and other conservative allocators have cut exposure, and the selling has been persistent rather than a single-day flush. Nine consecutive red days is a long stretch by any measure; the last green print was September 28. That kind of steady bleed tends to weigh on spot price even when the derivatives side looks constructive.
Leverage builds on both sides of the book
Ethereum longs on Bitfinex have jumped 266% in just a few weeks, hitting their highest level since 2022. That's aggressive positioning into a falling market, and it's the sort of build-up that can cut both ways. The same goes for the anonymous whale who opened a $50 million ETH long with 25x leverage and is now less than $50 away from liquidation. A move of that size sits right at the edge of the order book, and it doesn't take much of a wick to turn a leveraged bet into forced selling.
The chart watchers' levels
Technical analysts aren't ready to call the top of the retracement yet, but they've staked out the levels that matter. Ali Martinez pointed to an 'Adam and Eve' bottoming pattern with a neckline at $2,520, saying a sustained close above it would confirm a bullish breakout and open the door toward $2,640. Ted flagged resistance at $2,560–$2,570, and said reclaiming that zone could set up a pump to $2,700. Both targets sit above the current price, which is the point — the market needs to prove itself first.
One eye on $5,000
Further out, the X user BLADE kept a $5,000 long-term target on the table, citing historical rallies after similar dips and comparing the current base to the 2025 bottom. That's a minority view in a week when ETF flows are negative and exchange balances are rising, but it's the kind of call that keeps the bid alive on dips. For now, the market is watching whether ETH can reclaim $2,520 and then $2,560. A close above those levels would put the whale long back in profit and take some pressure off the Bitfinex crowd — and a failure there would leave the liquidation line in play.
