Ethereum is trading around $1,860 on Monday, still struggling to break above the $2,000 resistance zone after a brief recovery from June's sell-off. The daily chart shows ETH recently broke out of a long-term descending channel, but the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain overhead, keeping sellers in control on higher timeframes. A test of the 100-day MA near $2,000 was rejected, leaving the second-largest crypto trapped between technical barriers.
Ethereum trapped between technical barriers
The $2,000 level is a key supply zone where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge. That area rejected ETH earlier this month, and the price has since pulled back. Stronger resistance sits around $2,400, which capped the previous recovery attempt back in April. On the downside, the $1,750 support zone has held so far, but a break below that could open the door to $1,700 and then $1,600.
Short-term wedge pattern in play
On the 4-hour chart, ETH has been forming a rising wedge since early July, printing higher highs and higher lows while respecting an upward trendline. After hitting the upper boundary of the ascending channel, the price pulled back to the trendline, where buyers stepped in. As long as ETH stays above $1,750 and the rising trendline, the short-term bullish structure remains intact. The next target for buyers is the $1,900–$1,950 range. A decisive breakout above that could open the path toward $2,000. But a breakdown below the white ascending trendline would weaken the structure and increase the odds of a deeper retracement toward $1,750.
Exchange supply hits fresh lows
While the price action looks mixed, on-chain data tells a different story. The Exchange Supply Ratio — the proportion of ETH held on centralized exchanges — continues to decline to fresh lows. That means coins are moving into private wallets or long-term storage, reducing sell-side liquidity. It's a sign of improving investor conviction, even as the price structure remains bearish on higher timeframes. If demand strengthens while exchange balances stay low, the reduced available supply could support a broader recovery once ETH overcomes those key technical resistance levels.
For now, the immediate question is whether buyers can push ETH back above $1,900 and then $2,000. If they can't, the risk of a drop toward $1,750 grows. The declining exchange supply is a bullish undercurrent, but it won't matter if the price can't break through the overhead moving averages.
