Ethereum broke above the upper boundary of a descending channel on the daily timeframe this week, but the breakout hasn't been confirmed yet. The move could still turn out to be a false breakout, and the $2,000–$2,150 supply zone — reinforced by the declining 100-day moving average — remains the primary resistance. On the downside, the $1,750–$1,800 region is the first support level; losing it could open the door to a drop toward $1,500–$1,550.
The breakout that isn't quite there
ETH rallied from July lows and pushed above the channel's upper boundary, but the daily close hasn't yet confirmed the breakout. The 100-day moving average, sloping downward, sits squarely in the $2,000–$2,150 zone, making that area a tough nut to crack. A clean break above $2,150 would signal a real trend shift, but for now, the higher-timeframe structure hasn't flipped bullish.
What the 4-hour chart shows
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is consolidating inside an ascending flag — a pattern that formed after the sharp rally from July lows. That flag is still intact, but a break below the ascending trendline support would invalidate the structure and expose the $1,760–$1,800 demand zone. So the short-term picture is cautiously optimistic, but fragile.
Whales aren't rushing to sell
Exchange inflow data shows that large holder deposits to exchanges have stayed subdued despite ETH's recovery toward $1,800. That means major participants aren't dumping into the rally — a good sign for the bulls. Still, short-term sentiment has improved, but the higher-timeframe structure hasn't confirmed a trend reversal. The next few daily closes will tell the story.
What to watch: whether ETH can close above $2,000 and hold. If it does, the path to $2,150 opens up. If it fails, the $1,750–$1,800 support gets tested again.
