Ethereum's biggest non-exchange wallets are piling in. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH added a net 130,000 ETH over the past week, according to on-chain data. Meanwhile, smaller cohorts — those with 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH — dumped a combined 360,000 ETH net in the same period. The divergence suggests a classic accumulation phase among deep-pocketed players while retail and mid-tier holders take profits or cut losses.
Whale accumulation vs. retail distribution
The trend is stark. Wallets in the 10k–100k ETH bucket have been steadily growing their stacks, even as the broader market struggles with low trading volumes — some of the weakest since November 2023. Smaller holders, by contrast, have been reducing exposure. The net effect: whales are absorbing supply that smaller players are shedding. It's a pattern that's played out before in crypto cycles, often preceding a move higher — but nothing's guaranteed.
On-chain signals show mixed sentiment
Ethereum's Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been hovering between 0.98 and 1.01, meaning most coins moved recently were sold near break-even. That's not a panic, but it's not conviction either. Exchange netflow — the amount of ETH flowing into trading platforms — remains negative, which is typically bullish because it suggests coins are leaving exchanges for cold storage. But the netflow has risen from roughly -34,000 ETH in mid-July to just -4,000 ETH now. That weakening negative flow signals that the buying pressure behind the accumulation may be fading.
On Monday, net realized losses spiked, meaning the majority of ETH moved on-chain that day changed hands at a loss. That's a short-term bearish signal, though it can also mark a local bottom if selling exhausts.
Technical picture: ETH stuck between EMAs
Price action tells a similar story of indecision. ETH is trapped between its 50-day exponential moving average at $1,851 and the 20-day EMA at $1,869. The 100-day EMA sits higher at $1,931, and a previously broken ascending trend line near $1,948 adds another layer of resistance. The Relative Strength Index is near 51 — neutral. The stochastic oscillator is around 29, suggesting momentum is stabilizing after a recent pullback but hasn't turned decisively bullish.
Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $17.77 million, with $11.77 million of that coming from short positions. That's a modest squeeze, not a major shift.
The immediate path depends on whether ETH can close a daily candle above the 20-day EMA at $1,869. If it does, the next targets are the 100-day EMA at $1,931 and the old trend-line support-turned-resistance near $1,948. Above that, $1,961 comes into play, with higher targets at $2,172 and $2,431.
On the downside, support sits at the 50-day EMA of $1,851, then the horizontal level at $1,809. A decisive break below $1,809 could send ETH toward $1,701, and further selling could expose $1,507. The broader macro backdrop isn't helping: ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's moderately hawkish stance are keeping risk assets on edge. For now, ETH is waiting for a catalyst — either a breakout above $1,869 or a breakdown below $1,809.
