Ethereum has fallen 57% to $2,100 since August 2025, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio down 37% over the same stretch. But amid the price weakness, on-chain transaction volumes and total value locked across the Ethereum ecosystem remain near record highs — a disconnect that has caught the attention of Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick. He's drawing a direct comparison to Amazon during the 2001 dot-com crash, arguing the network's fundamentals could fuel a recovery.
The price action and on-chain paradox
The drawdown has been brutal. Ether is trading at levels last seen in early 2024, and the ratio against bitcoin has collapsed. Yet the network isn't slowing down. Daily transactions and TVL are holding at all-time highs, signaling real usage that isn't reflected in the token price. That kind of split between usage and valuation is rare in crypto, and it's the core of Kendrick's thesis.
Standard Chartered's Amazon analogy
Kendrick sees Ethereum where Amazon was in 2001 — deeply out of favor, but with underlying infrastructure that would eventually dominate. He's projecting a rebound to $4,000 by the end of this year and $40,000 by 2030, a level that would push the ETH/BTC ratio back to its 2021 peaks. The bank's call rests on Ethereum's growing role in tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins.
Ethereum's stablecoin and RWA dominance
Ethereum still commands between 50% and 65% of the market for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. That dominance is often cited as a structural growth driver — a flywheel that could tighten supply as more institutions issue and trade these assets on the network. If that trend accelerates, the argument goes, price should eventually catch up to usage.
