The share of Ethereum's circulating supply sitting on a gain of more than 300% has shrunk to just 11% — the lowest since February 2017. That's a level that even the deepest bear markets of 2019 and 2022 never saw, according to on-chain data compiled by Santiment. The metric, which tracks coins bought cheap and never sold through the cycle, suggests long-term holders are either sitting on much thinner profits or never got into the green at all this time around.
ETH's 3x profit supply hits 11%
For context, during previous bull runs the portion of supply with a 3x-plus gain routinely exceeded 50%. This cycle, it never cracked 30%. The current 11% reading means most ETH that's been held for any length of time is now underwater or barely above purchase price. That's a stark contrast to 2017, when a similar share was locked in at massive gains just before the run to all-time highs.
Santiment's 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio paints a similarly grim picture. Ethereum's ratio is -12%, while Bitcoin's is -10%. Negative MVRV means the average coin moved in the last month was sold at a loss — a sign of panic or forced selling.
Where ETH stands now
Ether's price fell near $1,500 during the recent market rout, a level that wiped out most profits for anyone who bought after mid-2021. It's since bounced to around $1,680, but that's still well below the $2,000-$3,000 range where a lot of supply changed hands in 2024 and early 2025.
The question now is whether that $1,500 area holds as a floor. With long-term holders showing no incentive to sell at a loss — and the 3x profit supply at multi-year lows — sellers could be exhausted for now. But with MVRV still deep in negative territory, any rally will likely face overhead supply from holders looking to break even.
No specific catalyst is on the calendar. The next big reset for on-chain profitability will take a sustained price move, not just a dead-cat bounce.
