The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, and adopted a hawkish tone that rattled risk assets. Bitcoin slipped below $64,000 as traders recalibrated expectations for higher rates through year-end.
Hawkish pivot from the Fed
The central bank removed language from its statement that had suggested a bias toward further monetary easing. Instead, policymakers signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. The new quarterly projections show the federal funds rate ending the year at 3.8% — up from the 3.4% forecast in March. Markets now price in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher on the news, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies. The move wasn't a surprise — rates stayed put — but the hawkish tilt caught some traders off guard.
Bitcoin technicals turn bearish
Bitcoin is now trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages — at $70,042, $72,839, and $78,174 respectively. The previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has flipped into a major resistance zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is slightly positive, but that looks like a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend.
First major resistance sits at $64,004. To meaningfully improve the technical picture, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the 50-day EMA at $70,042. Until then, the near-term bias stays bearish.
ETF outflows accelerate
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, according to CoinGlass data. It's another sign that institutional demand is cooling as the macro backdrop turns less friendly. The outflows add to selling pressure in a market already struggling to find a foothold.
For now, Bitcoin remains trapped below key moving averages with no immediate catalyst to reverse the trend. All eyes are on the Fed's December meeting — and the increasingly real possibility of a rate hike.
