The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, the first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Bitcoin and major stock indexes both declined in the hours before Warsh’s inaugural press conference, signaling market unease about the tone the new Fed chief might strike.
The rate decision
The vote was unanimous. The Fed cited still-elevated inflation and a tight labor market as reasons to hold steady. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump appointee, took the helm in April after Jerome Powell’s term ended. This was his first real test — setting policy and then explaining it to the public.
The statement itself was largely unchanged from the May meeting. No surprises in the language. But markets were watching for any hint that Warsh might lean more hawkish than his predecessor.
Markets react
Bitcoin fell about 3% in the hour before the press conference was set to start, sliding below $58,000. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also drifted lower. It wasn't a rout — more of a cautious pullback. Traders said the move was about positioning: nobody wanted to be caught long if Warsh struck a tough tone on inflation.
Stocks have rallied hard this year on AI optimism. Crypto has been more mixed, with Bitcoin still up about 35% year-to-date but struggling to hold $60,000. A hawkish Fed could pour cold water on both.
Warsh's debut
Warsh's first press conference as chair was scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. The room was packed. He's known for being direct, sometimes combative, in his previous stints at the Fed and the White House. The big question: would he signal a cut later this year or hold the line?
Most economists expect no move until September at the earliest. Warsh hasn't tipped his hand in public speeches so far. This presser was the first real chance for markets to get a read on him.
The timing isn't great for risk assets. Bitcoin and stocks are both sitting near key technical levels. A few sharp words from Warsh could trigger a bigger selloff. A dovish surprise might spark a rally. Either way, the market was bracing.
The next Fed meeting is July 29-30. Between now and then, the July jobs report and CPI print will matter a lot. Warsh said in his confirmation hearing he'd be “data-dependent” — a phrase every Fed chair uses. The data will have to do the talking.
