Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz cast doubt on the idea of XRP reaching $10,000, arguing that if rational investors gave it even a 1% chance, they'd have already bid the token to at least $20. His remarks drew immediate pushback from crypto pundits BarriC and Pumpius, who laid out their own visions of XRP scaling into the tens of thousands. XRP traded around $1.46 at press time, up over the past 24 hours.
Schwartz's math
Schwartz, the architect behind Ripple's XRP Ledger, made the case in a recent online exchange. A 1% probability of a $10,000 price implies an expected value of $100, he reasoned. Rational believers, he said, would have bought until the price reflected that — meaning at least $20. The fact that XRP has never come close suggests the market doesn't see that scenario as plausible.
BarriC's institutional thesis
Pundit BarriC countered that XRP was never designed to be cheap. It's built for moving institutional value, he argued, and needs to hit at least $1,000 to be fit for that purpose. He laid out a ladder: $2–$10 is the beginning; $100–$1,000 marks the shift from retail to adoption; $1,000–$10,000 becomes adoption necessity; and $10,000–$50,000 is global financial infrastructure. To illustrate, BarriC gave an example: a $1 million cross-border transaction would require 200,000 XRP at $5 per coin, but only 20 XRP at $50,000 per coin.
Pumpius brings up Schwartz's ETH bet
Pumpius pointed out that Schwartz himself sold his Ethereum around $1. Applying a 2,300x multiple to XRP's current $10 tag could imply a price of $46,000, he noted. The comparison served as a reminder that even skeptics can miss big moves.
Where XRP sits now
At roughly $1.46, XRP remains far from any of these targets. The token saw a modest uptick in the last 24 hours, but the debate highlights the wide gulf between the asset's current valuation and the ambitions of its most ardent backers. The question of whether XRP can ever serve as a backbone for institutional payments — and at what price — remains unsettled. For now, the market is voting with its wallet, and it's nowhere near Schwartz's $20 floor or BarriC's $1,000 threshold.
