France's National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction market platform. The directive, issued on July 16, classifies Polymarket as an illegal gambling operation, citing concerns over consumer addiction, weak know-your-customer (KYC) controls, and the potential for market manipulation — including the possibility of tampering with weather data to influence betting outcomes.
Gambling label, not information market
Regulators have long struggled with how to categorize prediction markets. The ANJ's move makes clear it sees Polymarket as a betting platform, not a legitimate information market. The authority pointed to the difficulty of monitoring who is placing bets, whether minors can access the site, and the lack of problem-gambling protections. Polymarket allows users to trade on the probability of future events — politics, sports, macro outcomes — but regulators argue that looks a lot like unlicensed gambling.
ISP block and the VPN workaround
The block targets ISPs, not the platform itself. Users in France can still reach Polymarket through a VPN, but the order raises friction and sends a regulatory message. It's a tactic familiar from other jurisdictions that have tried to curb offshore gambling sites. The ANJ's action is specific to France — it's not an EU-wide ban — but the reasoning could influence other countries weighing similar steps against unlicensed prediction markets.
Why the manipulation concern matters
The ANJ flagged a specific risk: that bettors could manipulate real-world events tied to market outcomes. The example given was weather data. If a market pays out based on a temperature reading, someone with a large stake could theoretically tamper with the sensor. It's a niche scenario, but it underscores the regulator's view that prediction markets aren't just forecasting tools — they're gambling contracts that create perverse incentives.
Polymarket's growth shows real user demand. But the French block is a reminder that operating across borders with digital wallets makes crypto prediction markets hard to regulate under existing frameworks. The path forward likely requires jurisdiction-specific controls: licensing, mandatory KYC, or restricted access. The bigger question — whether prediction markets can find a regulatory category that separates forecasting from unlicensed gambling — remains unanswered. For now, Polymarket is blocked in France, and other regulators are watching.
