Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eizenkot's chances of becoming the country's next prime minister have surged to 49.5% on the prediction market Polymarket, according to the platform's data. The Israel PM market has drawn $27.6 million in total volume, making it one of the most actively traded political contracts on the site.
A Betting-Market Frontrunner
Eizenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who entered politics in 2022 with Benny Gantz's National Unity party, has not formally declared a candidacy for the top job. But bettors on Polymarket are increasingly pricing in a scenario where he takes over. The 49.5% probability represents a sharp rise from earlier in the month, though the platform does not provide a historical timeline.
Prediction markets like Polymarket let users buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes. In this case, the contract asks: "Who will be Israel's next Prime Minister?" Other names on the list include Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, and Yair Lapid, but Eizenkot now leads the field.
Coalition Tensions Over a Funding Bill
Separately, a report this week detailed a clash between two coalition parties — Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas — over a proposed increase in party funding. The dispute centers on whether the bill should be tied to a specific date for dissolving the Knesset, which would trigger early elections.
Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, opposed linking the funding boost to a dissolution timeline. Shas, the ultra-Orthodox party, pushed for the connection. The disagreement highlights the fragile state of the governing coalition, where tensions over budget and election timing have repeatedly flared.
Neither party has indicated whether the funding bill will move forward in its current form. The Knesset's winter session resumes next week, and the bill's fate may offer clues about the coalition's stability — and whether an early election is on the table.
What the Betting Numbers Mean
Polymarket's data does not explain why Eizenkot's odds jumped. The market reflects aggregate sentiment from anonymous traders, not official polling or campaign events. Still, the $27.6 million in volume suggests a high level of interest, and the probability shift aligns with a period of uncertainty in Israeli politics.
Eizenkot has not commented publicly on the Polymarket figures. His office did not respond to a request for comment.
The next scheduled election is not until 2026, but the Knesset could vote to dissolve itself earlier. The funding bill clash may be a precursor to that debate — or it could fizzle out. Either way, bettors are placing their money on a former general who has yet to declare his hand.
