Galaxy has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act passing to just 10%. The firm points to unresolved ethics questions, disagreements over stablecoin yield, and gaps in developer protections, plus a tight Senate calendar when lawmakers return in September.
Why the odds dropped
The reduced probability reflects three sticking points. Ethics concerns remain unresolved, stablecoin yield rules are still contested, and developer protection provisions haven't been settled. None of these have moved toward a compromise, according to Galaxy's assessment.
The issues aren't new, but they haven't been worked out in committee or informal talks. That leaves the bill in a fragile position.
A narrow Senate window
When the Senate reconvenes in September, the floor schedule is packed. That leaves little room for extended debate or amendment votes on a complex piece of legislation. Galaxy's forecast suggests the calendar alone could be enough to stall the bill, even if the policy disputes were resolved.
The combination of unresolved substance and limited time is why the odds fell to a single-digit range. A 10% chance isn't zero, but it's a clear signal that passage is now the exception rather than the expectation.
What happens next
The next real test comes in September, when senators return and decide whether to prioritize the CLARITY Act. If the ethics, yield, and developer protection issues aren't addressed before then, the bill likely won't reach a floor vote this session.
Galaxy's updated forecast will shift again if lawmakers show progress in the coming weeks. For now, the path to passage looks narrow.
