Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment, saying the asset has entered an accumulation phase after a potential bottom near $76,500 on June 30. Bitcoin is trading just above $80,000, down more than 4% month-to-date and headed for a second straight losing October. The call lands at an awkward moment for anyone who's been watching the calendar rather than the chart.
Why Galaxy is leaning bullish
The firm's evidence rests mostly on market structure. Bitcoin has recovered above its 50-week moving average, which sits near $76,000, and has logged multiple weekly closes above that level. That's the kind of thing technicians watch to separate a bounce from an actual turn.
Galaxy also argues the selling side has thinned out. Long-term holders have slowed their distribution, macro traders and basis-focused funds have cut exposure, and asset managers' net-long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have fallen substantially from earlier highs. Less overhead supply is the argument. Whether demand shows up to meet it is a different question.
A conditional thesis, not a victory lap
Galaxy framed the call as conditional, and the condition is specific: a sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average without a quick recovery would undermine the assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower. In plain terms, the firm is saying the bottom holds as long as price doesn't spend real time underneath the level it just reclaimed.
The immediate test is the $75,800–$76,500 region around that average. Bitcoin needs sustained spot demand to keep the structure intact. Without it, the accumulation phase is just a pause.
ETFs split the tape
Flows gave a mixed read the same day. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $110 million in net inflows on October 26, snapping a two-day outflow streak, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for nearly all of the gains. That's a single fund doing the heavy lifting, not broad-based buying.
Ether told the other side of the story. U.S. spot Ether ETFs bled $88 million to $90 million in outflows over the same session, a reminder that institutional demand isn't uniformly bullish across the two largest assets. The Bitcoin inflow is a data point in Galaxy's favor. The Ether outflow is a reason not to overread it.
What the October close means
A second consecutive losing October is a sour headline, but the more useful signal is where Bitcoin finishes the week relative to that 50-week average. Galaxy's thesis survives a red month. It doesn't survive a sustained close below the line. The next weekly close is the nearest concrete checkpoint, and the $75,800–$76,500 band is where the argument gets settled.
