Galaxy Research says Bitcoin's bear market bottomed in June, and the firm is telling clients that now is an attractive time to buy. In a research note, the firm cited three pieces of evidence: Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average, selling pressure has faded, and the case for holding the asset as a hedge against currency debasement has strengthened.
The call lands at a moment when the market is still trying to decide whether the worst is behind it. Galaxy's answer is unambiguous. The firm's note states, "Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy" Bitcoin.
The 50-week line and why it matters
The 50-week moving average is a long-term trend gauge that Bitcoin has crossed back and forth over the past two years. Reclaiming it doesn't guarantee a rally — the line has produced false starts before — but Galaxy treats the move as confirmation that the downtrend has run its course. The firm dates the end of the bear market to June, which would make the current period a recovery rather than a bottoming process.
That's a notable claim because it's a retrospective call, not a forward-looking prediction. Galaxy isn't saying the market will bottom. It's saying it already did.
Sellers are running out of ammunition
Galaxy's second pillar is fading selling pressure. The firm didn't disclose specific metrics in the note, but the logic is straightforward: if the marginal seller is exhausted, the path of least resistance shifts upward. That argument depends on whether the sellers Galaxy has in mind are short-term holders, miners, or something else. The note doesn't break it down, which leaves the claim harder to verify than the moving-average signal.
The debasement trade is back on the table
The third leg is what Galaxy calls a strengthening debasement case. That's the argument that fiscal deficits and currency dilution make hard-capped assets more attractive relative to fiat. It's a familiar narrative, and it tends to gain traction when macro conditions look strained. Galaxy doesn't spell out what changed on that front in recent months, but it lists the debasement case alongside the technical and flow-based signals as part of the same thesis.
What Galaxy isn't saying
The note is a directional call, not a price target. There's no timeline attached to the June bottom, no projection for where Bitcoin goes from here, and no discussion of what would invalidate the thesis. That's the gap worth watching. A reclaimed 50-week average can be lost again. Selling pressure can return. And the debasement trade has a habit of fading when macro conditions stabilize.
For now, Galaxy has staked out a clear position: the bear market is over, and the buying window is open. The next test is whether the 50-week line holds on a weekly close. If it does, the firm's June call will look prescient. If it doesn't, the note will read like a lot of other bottom calls.
