Google's Gemini AI has issued a price target for XRP, predicting the token could hit $2.25 to $2.50 within 90 days from its current price of $1.32. The forecast comes with a $2.26 billion short liquidation cluster sitting above the current price — a setup that could trigger forced buybacks if XRP breaks higher.
The short squeeze setup
That $2.26 billion isn't just a number. It represents short positions that would be forcibly closed if XRP climbs above their liquidation price. Those buybacks add fuel to any upward move. Gemini's short squeeze thesis is essentially a bet that the current consolidation range breaks to the upside. The range itself has been narrowing over the past three months, bounded by $1.20 on the low end and $1.60 on the high end. A breakout above $1.60 would put that liquidation cluster directly in play.
What's driving demand
It's not just a short squeeze narrative. Tokenized Real-World Asset (RWA) volume on XRP Ledger is up 78% year-to-date, outperforming Ethereum on that metric. That's real usage growth. Meanwhile, spot ETF inflows are building institutional demand for XRP. The combination of on-chain activity and institutional money gives the bull case some legs beyond mere speculation.
The bear case
But the macro picture isn't friendly. High oil prices and sticky inflation could keep interest rates elevated. That drains liquidity from risk assets like crypto. A geopolitical risk-off shift could push XRP all the way down to $1.20. That level matters — it's the pre-election breakout zone from November 2024. Losing it would price out the post-SEC settlement premium that drove XRP from $0.50 to $3.70 in late 2024 and early 2025. The token's been in a descending channel since the January 2025 peak, making lower highs and lower lows. The current $1.32 price is a far cry from that $3.70 top.
Where XRP stands now
It's been stuck in that $1.20–$1.60 consolidation for three months now. The range is tightening, which usually means a breakout is coming — the question is which direction. Gemini is betting up, but the macro headwinds are real. The next few weeks will tell whether the short squeeze thesis has teeth or whether the bears keep control.
