The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined former U.S. Rep. George Santos $35,000 for betting on his own absence from the 2026 State of the Union address, the agency announced Friday. Santos, expelled from Congress in 2023 and later pardoned by President Trump, made the wager on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. The fine includes $17,500 in penalties and $17,569.98 in disgorged profits — the exact amount he made on the trade.
How the Bet Worked
Between February 12 and February 25, 2026, Santos traded contracts on Kalshi that asked whether he would show up for the State of the Union. He bet that he would skip it. While holding those positions, he posted on X about his plans — posts the CFTC later called misleading. Santos pocketed $17,570 from the trade and kept the money for about five months before the order forced him to return it. He also agreed to a three-year ban from trading on Kalshi. His lawyer, Joseph W. Murray, said the settlement does not admit any wrongdoing.
Caught in Seconds
Kalshi’s system flagged Santos’s bet within seconds. Within minutes, hundreds of whistleblower complaints poured in. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Axios that on traditional stock exchanges, detection takes weeks. On prediction markets, traders notice immediately because their own money is at stake. The speed of the catch may become Kalshi’s strongest argument in its legal defense.
The CFTC’s Crackdown
The fine is part of a broader push by the CFTC. In February 2026, the agency said it would go after insider trading and manipulation on prediction markets. Santos is not the first politician to run afoul of Kalshi’s rules — the exchange previously punished three congressional candidates who bet on their own races. A White House teleprompter operator lost his job in July 2026 after winning over $100,000 betting on Trump’s speeches.
Kalshi’s Legal Battles
On the same day the CFTC fined Santos, New York sued Kalshi, calling its operations illegal gambling and seeking up to $36 billion. Kalshi insists it is a regulated exchange, not a casino, and is fighting the lawsuit while pursuing a $40 billion valuation. Separately, Kalshi is running its own case against Santos. If it collects any money from him, the exchange says it will try to repay the traders he beat.
