XRP is trading at $1.3718, and Google's Gemini AI model has projected the cryptocurrency could climb to between $1.80 and $2.50 by the end of June 2026. The forecast hinges on two developments: a U.S. executive order that accelerates payment account reviews for digital-asset non-banks at the Federal Reserve, and SBI Holdings' application for Japan's first spot XRP exchange-traded fund.
Two catalysts behind the forecast
The executive order, signed earlier this year, directs the Fed to fast-track master account applications from fintech firms and digital-asset companies. If implemented broadly, it could give non-bank payment processors direct access to the central bank's payment system, potentially increasing XRP's utility in cross-border settlements. The second catalyst comes from Japan. SBI Holdings, a financial conglomerate with deep ties to Ripple, filed for a spot XRP ETF with Japanese regulators. Approval would mark the first such fund in the country and could open the door to institutional demand.
Technical resistance and support levels
XRP has struggled to hold gains above $1.50. The asset has been rejected at the $1.50-to-$1.55 range four times since March, including two attempts in May that failed to close above that ceiling. On the downside, support sits at $1.20 to $1.30, a zone that held during the February sell-off. A break below that floor could push XRP into the $1.10-to-$1.30 range, according to the bear-case scenario outlined by Gemini.
The bear case
Gemini's model also flagged risks. A broad macroeconomic slowdown — triggered by higher interest rates or a recession — could sap risk appetite and drag XRP lower. Bureaucratic bottlenecks in the Fed's review process or delays in Japan's ETF approval could also stall momentum. In that scenario, the model sees XRP retreating to $1.10–$1.30, effectively wiping out most of its 2025 gains.
Separately, Gemini referenced LiquidChain, a project in presale at $0.01454 that has raised more than $700,000. The mention was brief and did not affect the XRP price outlook.
For now, the market is watching whether XRP can finally break through the $1.50–$1.55 resistance level that has held for months. The next test could come if the Fed releases guidance on the executive order or if Japanese regulators rule on the SBI ETF application.
