Grayscale warned this week that Bitcoin could remain under pressure until September or October if the historic four-year cycle repeats. The asset manager, which runs the world's largest Bitcoin trust, said the pattern that has governed previous market peaks and troughs may still be in play — but it's not the only lens worth watching.
What the cycle says
Bitcoin's four-year cycle, tied to its halving events, has historically seen prices bottom roughly 12-18 months after a peak. The last all-time high came in late 2021, which would put a potential floor somewhere in the second half of 2026. Grayscale's research team noted that if that rhythm holds, the market could stay choppy for another few months.
But the firm also cautioned that the cycle isn't a law. It's a pattern that has held three times, which isn't a huge sample size. The real question is whether this time is different — and on that front, Grayscale thinks the answer might be yes.
Why Fed policy matters more now
Grayscale suggested that economic growth and Federal Reserve policy now offer a more useful guide to Bitcoin's market than the four-year cycle. That's a shift in tone. For years, crypto traders treated the halving as the single most important event. Now the macro environment is muscling in.
Inflation data, jobs reports, and rate decisions are moving Bitcoin more than block rewards. If the Fed cuts rates later this year, that could provide a tailwind. If it holds steady or hikes again, the pressure stays on.
Zach Pandl's take
Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, indicated that Bitcoin may have already bottomed — but only if the Fed avoids another rate increase. That's a big if. The central bank's next meeting is in September, and markets are split on what happens next.
Pandl's comment suggests the firm sees a narrow path to a recovery. If the Fed pivots, the cycle could break early. If it doesn't, the old pattern might hold, and the wait drags into autumn.
The next few weeks of economic data will likely set the tone. For now, Grayscale is telling clients to watch the Fed, not the halving clock.
