Grayscale has put out a new analysis suggesting Bitcoin may have already hit its bottom for this cycle — but the firm is careful to add a big caveat: it all hinges on what the Federal Reserve does next. The asset manager argues that the old four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant driver of Bitcoin's price.
The four-year cycle is dead
Grayscale says the traditional Bitcoin cycle, which historically saw prices peak roughly a year after each halving, is no longer valid. Instead, the firm believes macro factors — particularly the Fed's interest rate policy — have taken over as the primary force shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory. The predictable rhythm of supply cuts and speculative peaks, Grayscale argues, has been replaced by a more complex dance with central bank decisions.
What the Fed has to do
According to Grayscale, if the Fed pivots to a more accommodative stance, that could confirm that Bitcoin has bottomed. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price will now follow macro forces and the Fed's actions, rather than the four-year schedule. That means the next rate decision carries more weight for crypto than the next halving event.
What this means for the market
Grayscale's view challenges a deeply held belief among Bitcoiners — that the halving cycle is immutable. If the firm is right, investors need to pay closer attention to macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy. The timing isn't great for those hoping for a quick rebound based on historical patterns. The Fed's next meeting is in September. Whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed may become clearer after that decision.
