Grayscale believes Bitcoin has matured enough that its price is now driven by macroeconomic forces rather than crypto-native cycles — and that the bottom may already be in. But not everyone is convinced. The asset manager's latest note argues that this year's downturn unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates, a pattern that mirrors previous Bitcoin bear markets tied to slowing economic growth.
Grayscale: Bitcoin now a macro asset
Grayscale says Bitcoin has evolved into an asset class increasingly influenced by the same broad forces that move stocks and bonds. The firm notes that past Bitcoin bear markets coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates — and that this cycle is no different. If the Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, Grayscale suggests Bitcoin's price may have already reached its low.
The four-year cycle theory still has a date
The traditional four-year cycle theory predicts Bitcoin bottoms about one year after a cyclical peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging around 80%. Based on that framework, the bottom could come in September or October of this year. That timeline is still on the table, but some traders say the pattern might be breaking.
Analysts split on whether the low is in
Crypto trader Killa says Bitcoin's market structure suggests the bottom may already be in, but he remains '50/50' because the current cycle would have bottomed in around 260 days versus the typical 365 days. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the monthly chart is displaying the same combination of technical signals seen near the end of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. But he acknowledged that on-chain metrics such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward the $40,000-$50,000 range.
Analyst Doctor Profit warned that investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could miss the market's next move. He does not expect a drop below $50,000 and believes gradual accumulation already offers an attractive risk-reward profile.
The debate leaves traders with a familiar question: buy now or wait for a possible deeper dip? For Grayscale, the macro case suggests the worst is over. For cycle purists, the calendar says wait a few more months.
