Roughly 10.46 million Bitcoin — about half of all coins in circulation — are currently held at a loss, according to on-chain data. That's a level the market has hit only a handful of times, and each time it preceded a major bottom. Bitcoin traded around $63,242 on Tuesday, down more than 40% over the past twelve months.
10.46 million coins underwater
The 'Total Supply in Loss' metric tracks the number of coins whose current price is lower than the price at which they last moved. When that number crosses 10 million, it means a significant chunk of holders are sitting on red positions. Historically, those moments have coincided with the final washout phase of a bear cycle.
This time is no different in raw numbers — but context matters. The current supply in loss is nearly double what it was during the mid-2022 selloff, partly because the market has a much larger total supply now.
NUPL slips into 'Hope–Fear' territory
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator has fallen into what analysts call the 'Hope–Fear' zone. That's the band just below optimism but not yet full capitulation. It signals that sentiment has deteriorated sharply, but not enough to trigger the kind of panic selling that usually marks a final bottom.
The indicator's position suggests many holders are still hoping for a rebound rather than rushing for the exits. That hesitation can actually prolong a downtrend, as weak hands haven't been flushed out.
A pattern that's played out before
Each of the last two times the supply-in-loss metric topped 10 million — in late 2018 and again in March 2020 — Bitcoin was within weeks of a multiyear low. The data alone doesn't guarantee a repeat. But the combination of high underwater supply, weak sentiment, and a steep price decline has historically been a recipe for a turn.
Whether that turn has arrived is an open question. The price has been sliding for months, and the NUPL reading shows fear is baked in, not exhausted.
Why that might not be a sell signal
Analyst Ali Martinez argues that elevated loss holdings can actually reduce selling pressure. The logic: when most holders are already down, they're less likely to lock in losses by selling at the bottom. Instead they wait, which starves the market of supply and can eventually stabilize prices.
That dynamic has played out before, but it doesn't mean the selling is done. New sellers — recent buyers who panic, forced liquidations, regulatory shocks — can still push prices lower even if the majority of underwater holders stay put.
For now, the metric is flashing a familiar pattern. The question is whether history repeats or this cycle writes its own ending.
