HBAR, the native token of the Hedera network, is hovering near a make-or-break level at $0.10. Market data shows whale addresses are maintaining 68.5% long positions even as aggressive selling pressure mounts. Technical analysis suggests a 60% probability that HBAR will either rally to $0.135 or retest support at $0.085 within the next seven days.
Whale conviction meets resistance
Large holders — often referred to as whales — remain heavily long on HBAR despite the selling pressure that has kept the token from breaking higher. According to on-chain data, these big wallets control more than two-thirds of open long positions. That level of conviction is unusual when prices are stuck near a psychological round number like $0.10. It signals that major players expect a breakout, but the persistent selling suggests there's still a battle for control.
The selling pressure hasn't yet forced whales to unwind their positions, but the standoff can't last forever. If the price drops below $0.10 and stays there, some of those longs could start to liquidate, accelerating a move toward the $0.085 support level.
The technical odds at $0.10
Multiple technical indicators are converging around the $0.10 price point. Analysts tracking the token's charts describe it as a "critical decision point" — a zone where the next major trend is likely to be decided. The confluence of moving averages, volume patterns, and previous support/resistance levels gives a 60% probability of a move to $0.135 within a week, according to the market data available.
That leaves a 40% chance that HBAR fails to hold and drops back to test $0.085. Such a retest would wipe out recent gains and potentially trigger further selling from smaller holders who follow the whales.
A week to watch
The next seven days will likely determine which path HBAR takes. If the token can push through $0.10 with conviction and hold above it, the $0.135 target becomes the primary scenario. A failure to break higher, or a sudden increase in selling volume, could send it sliding toward $0.085.
No official statements have come from the Hedera Foundation or any project team members about the price action. The market is being driven entirely by trader positioning and technical factors. For now, all eyes are on whether the whale longs can overpower the sellers — or if the selling pressure finally breaks them.
